July 14, 2024

At this point the Democrats are living in a state of chaos since Joe Biden’s debate debacle. There’s a civil war going on between those who want him to step aside and those who want him to stay in. 

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Meanwhile as Biden is imploding, former President Donald Trump is rising. As we noted earlier, he’s leading in 11 of 12 national surveys. The NY Times/Sienna College survey found that post-debate Trump is now leading by six. The Wall Street Journal also has him up by six after the debate. 


Trump Pulls Ahead: Leads Multiple Post-Debate Polls, Particularly in One Key Swing State

Brutal Leaked Internal Polling for Biden Shows Just How Badly the Debate Damaged Him


On top of that, now Cook Political Report’s latest moves in the Electoral College map have to be considered a five alarm fire for Joe Biden and the Democrats. Five states and Nebraska’s 2nd District have moved toward Trump. 


AZ: Toss Up to Lean R

GA: Toss Up to Lean R

MN: Likely D to Lean D

#NE02: Likely D to Lean D

NH: Likely D to Lean D

NV: Toss Up to Lean R

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Cook Political’s Dave Wasserman said it all on these moves.

“The notion that the presidential is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate,” he explained. “Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.” 

If Minnesota and New Hampshire are only “Lean D” at this point, you know how much trouble Biden is in. 

That means under this assessment, Trump has 268 of the necessary 270 votes.

Biden would have 226 of the needed 270 electoral votes. 44 are considered toss-ups that Biden must win including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all of which Trump is presently leading in. 

On top of that, there’s terrific news in Pennsylvania since the debate. 

Private polling from Democrat and Republican sources revealed that former President Donald Trump has extended his lead in Pennsylvania from 4 percentage points to 10 over President Joe Biden following their June 27 debate in Atlanta.

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Cook is waiting for more polling before they do any moves on Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin from “toss-up.” 

Cook Political’s Amy Walter also explains how the environment has shifted six points toward Republicans since 2020 which is why she said more of the states that were close or previously leaning Democrat are now in play. 

That’s looking extremely good now for Trump, as the Democrats continue to dissolve into chaos. 

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