It’s always wise to take polls with a grain of salt. We’ve seen them “get it wrong” all too often in recent years, likely for a variety of reasons. Still, when they point to a trend in the aggregate or when they run counter to what you’d expect from a given outlet/outfit in light of its pre-disposition, they bear some consideration.
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CBS News is out with its latest poll following Thursday night’s presidential debate — and it paints a grim picture for President Joe Biden.
CBS News poll: After debate, an increasing number of voters don’t think President Biden should be running for reelection.
https://t.co/iE44UqKlhL— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) June 30, 2024
For months before the first debate, the nation’s voters repeatedly expressed doubts over whether President Biden had the cognitive health enough to serve.
Today, those doubts have grown even more: now at nearly three-quarters of the electorate, and now including many within his own party.
And today, after the debate with former President Trump, an increased number of voters, including many Democrats, don’t think Mr. Biden should be running for president at all. Nearly half his party doesn’t think he should now be the nominee.
Since the debate, Biden’s shown a 7-8 percent decline in the number of registered voters who believe he has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president. The latest numbers indicate only 27 percent of those polled believe he does, with 72 percent believing he does not.
Of course, CBS has to note that his opponent, former President Donald Trump, isn’t exactly killing it on that issue:
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(Trump, for his part, does better, but still only gets half the electorate thinking he has the cognitive health to serve.)
Fifty percent of those polled believe Trump is up to the job; 49 percent do not. But if I’m the Trump camp, I’ll take a 50/49 split on the issue over a 72/27 split any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
What really hurts for Biden, though, is the notable shift in Democratic voters who believe he should not be running for president. A full 10 percent of his own party’s voters have moved from the “should” to “should not” column since February. I suppose you could say he’s still “above water” on that issue within his party, with 54 percent believing he should, but contrast that with Trump, who has 85 percent of Republican voters believing he should be running.
RELATED: Biden’s Take on His Debate Performance Is Nuts,
but CNN’s Snap Poll Offers Harsh Reality Check
Again, I caution against reading too much into polls, but when there’s a 30-point differential in the parties’ views on whether or not their respective candidate (and presumptive nominee) should even be running, that does not bode well for the one on the short end of that stick.
In all the commotion since the debate, we’ve seen growing calls among many in Biden’s own party for him to step down. And while the Biden campaign maintains rumors of such are hogwash, the president is meeting with his family at Camp David today and, at least per some reports, evaluating the future of his campaign.
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Report: Biden Expected to Meet With Family at Camp David
to Discuss the Future of His Campaign
Team Biden Responds to Calls for Biden to Step Down After Abysmal Debate Performance
If you’ve been more than a casual observer of campaigns over the years, you might have picked up on this pattern: Every candidate/campaign steadfastly denies they are leaving the race…right up until the moment they do. I’ve been off on this prediction before, so take it with the same grain of salt you give polls, but…something tells me they’re going to rip this Band-Aid off sooner rather than later.
