July 13, 2024

Russia is likely to significantly increase its war spending in 2024 and is preparing for a protracted war against Ukraine.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence review on Twitter

Details: The documents, which appear to be a leak from the Russian Ministry of Finance, suggest that Russia’s spending on “defence” could rise to around 30% of total government spending in 2024.

The Russian MoD is asking to allocate RUB 10.8 trillion [roughly US$111,9 billion] for “defence”, which is about 6% of Russia’s GDP and a 68% increase compared to the figure in the 2023 budget.

“It is highly likely that Russia can support this level of defence spending through 2024, but only at the expense of the wider economy. Full details on Russian defence spending are always classified, but these figures suggests that Russia is preparing for multiple further years of fighting in Ukraine. This follows public comments by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on 27 September 2023, suggesting he was prepared for the conflict to continue into 2025,” the UK MoD stressed.

Background: On 27 September, UK Defence Intelligence stated that Russia had begun to engage separate units of the newly created 25th Combined Arms Army in combat as reinforcements, which in turn reduces the likelihood of a new large-scale Russian offensive in the near future.

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