June 22, 2024

I reported over the weekend about the shocking WaPo/ABC poll that has former president Donald Trump up over Joe Biden by ten points, the biggest lead in any poll so far.

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Now, that’s pretty big news. But what was funny was when the WaPo was tweeting about the poll, they buried the lede and also dumped on their own poll, calling it an “outlier.” 

The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.

Who dumps on the validity of their own poll? 

They didn’t do that when their poll had Biden in an unusual lead in 2020. 

“WaPo subhead suggests its own poll may be an outlier. That may be true, but they put no such disclaimer in headline 3 yrs ago when they published a poll of Wisconsin right before election day in 2020 showing Biden up 17 pts on Trump – 10 pts more than the avg of other polls at the time,” Real Clear Politics President Tom Bevan wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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Funny that. 

So that begs the question as to why they are doing that now. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure it out — they don’t want people to take it seriously when it applies to Trump beating Biden. 

But the problem is that they can’t argue away the facts of how bad their poll is in the internals for Joe Biden and how upset the American public is with him. As Townhall termed the ABC description, it was a “horror novel” for Joe Biden. 

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is 19 points underwater, his ratings for handling the economy and immigration are at career lows. A record number of Americans say they’ve become worse off under his presidency, three-quarters say he’s too old for another term and Donald Trump is looking better in retrospect — all severe challenges for Biden in his reelection campaign ahead. Forty-four percent of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say they’ve gotten worse off financially under Biden’s presidency, the most for any president in ABC/Post polls since 1986. Just 37% approve of his job performance, while 56% disapprove. Still fewer approve of Biden’s performance on the economy, 30%. On handling immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border, Biden’s rating is even lower, with 23% approval. In terms of intensity of sentiment, 20% strongly approve of his work overall, while 45% strongly disapprove. And the 74% who say he’s too old for a second term is up 6 percentage points since May. Such is down-on-Biden sentiment that if a government shutdown occurs at month’s end, 40% say they’d chiefly blame him and the Democrats in Congress, versus 33% who’d pin it on the Republicans in Congress — even given the GOP infighting behind the budget impasse.

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That’s borne out in poll after poll. The American people know they had it better under Trump; it wasn’t that long ago, and it’s a powerful memory compared to the chaos that Biden has brought now. 

That’s why if Democrats aren’t sweating, they should be now. 

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