April 19, 2024

Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, said that there will be no second march on Moscow following the example of the Wagner rebellion, but a rebellion is in fact brewing in Russia and it will lead to fragmentation of the Russian Federation. Ukraine knows who is leading the rebellion and how it manifests itself.

Source: Danilov on the air of the United News newcast, Ukrinform

Quote: “I think that this will no longer be a march. Remember how in August 1991 there was a collapse of the USSR. It is indeed brewing there, as it was with the ‘SCSE group’ in 1991, this is already maturing there and they are already groupin up there, this is a well-known fact. And we understand who is leading this, how it is happening [SCSE, or State Committee on the State of Emergency, a group of eight high-level Soviet officials who attempted a coup-d’etat against Mikhail Gorbachev – ed.].

The question of when another rebellion will occur in Russia is a matter of a short period of time. What time it will be, let’s see, but the processes are ongoing. And the fact that Kadyrov [Ramzan Kadyrov’s serious illness – ed.] is one of the factors that will also affect these processes.”

Details: Danilov noted that Russian oligarchic groups that lived their own lives should forget about stability and calmness after Putin’s crazy decision to start a war.

Answering the question whether international partners are ready for Russia to break up, Danilov said: “Many are aware, but some believe that this process can be controlled and things can be done that will not allow Russia to break up. I can say that no one can influence this, Russia will have to fragment and this will necessarily happen in our lifetime. And no force can stop this, because this is a historical process.”

Background: 

  • On 23 June, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the regular Russian army had launched a missile strike on the Wagnerites’ rear camps. Prigozhin claimed that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu arrived in Rostov, where he personally conducted an operation to wipe out the mercenaries.

  • Prigozhin’s 25,000 mercenaries are allegedly going to “restore justice”. At the same time, he asked not to call it a “military coup”. Prigozhin added that Shoigu had fled Rostov like a coward and “this creature will be stopped”. The Russian Defence Ministry called the information a provocation.

  • Prigozhin claimed that his forces had taken control of military facilities in Rostov-on-Don, including the air base, and were heading “to Moscow” and that his soldiers had shot down three Russian helicopters. They also seized military facilities in the Russian city of Voronezh.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is “fighting for survival” and that there are attempts to “organise a rebellion” in the country.

  • On the afternoon of 24 June, Russian media reported that the Office of the President of the Russian Federation anticipates that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group fighters will likely reach Moscow’s outskirts in the next few hours, with fighting expected near Russia’s capital. Ukrainian intelligence has information that Putin has urgently left Moscow for his residence in Valdai. A convoy of Wagner Group forces was spotted near the village of Krasnoe in Russia’s Lipetsk Oblast, located only 400 kilometres away from Moscow.

  • On the evening of 24 June, after having a call with self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin said that his mercenaries are turning their convoys around and going in the opposite direction to set up field camps. The criminal case against Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was to be closed and he was to “go to Belarus”.

  • On the evening of 23 August, a small plane crashed in the Bologovsky district of Tver Oblast, Russia. Rosaviatsiya, the Federal Air Transport Agency, said Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as having been on board.

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